New Senedd poll shows clear two-horse race for largest party with Plaid Cymru ahead – as Labour First Minister predicted to lose seat

A new Senedd poll has shown the Wales election on 7 May is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK – with Plaid Cymru maintaining the lead. Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan is predicted to lose her seat.

The latest poll conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University shows that Plaid Cymru continue to lead with 33% with Reform UK’s second on 27

The Senedd (Welsh Parliament) general election will be held on 7 May 2026.

Senedd voting intention:

(YouGov MRP model)

·       Plaid Cymru 33

·       Reform UK 27

·       Welsh Labour 13

·        Wales Green Party 12

·       Welsh Conservatives 7

·       Welsh Liberal Democrats 5

 Others 4

Senedd seat share:

(YouGov MRP model)

·       Plaid Cymru 43

·       Reform UK 30

·       Welsh Labour 12

·       Wales Green Party 10

·       Welsh Conservatives 1

A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said,

"Yet another poll confirms that this May’s Senedd election is very much a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK with Plaid Cymru in pole position to offer Wales the new leadership we need and to stop Reform UK.

"Wales now faces a stark choice between two futures.

"On one side, a Plaid Cymru government, led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, standing up for Wales and building a fairer, more ambitious nation: cutting NHS waiting lists, supporting families with the cost of living through free childcare, and creating good, well-paid jobs in a stronger economy.

"On the other, a billionaire backed Reform party full of ex-Tories more interested in getting Nigel Farage into Number 10. They would drag our politics backwards, privatise our NHS, and divide our communities.

"We are within touching distance of forming the next government but we cannot take anything for granted. Every vote will decide the future of Wales. There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but momentum alone won’t deliver change. If you want to stop Reform and choose hope, ambition, and a government that puts Wales first, then that change can only come by voting Plaid Cymru on May 7.”